An Economic Analysis of Conflicts - With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

by Nicos Christodoulakis
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Nicos Christodoulakis An Economic Analysis of Conflicts - With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949
Nicos Christodoulakis - An Economic Analysis of Conflicts - With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

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This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, local socio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed.


Nicos Christodoulakis

Further information

Illustrations Note:
11 schwarz-weiße und 21 farbige Abbildungen, Bibliographie

Develops alternative methods for estimating the economic costs of civil conflicts

Extends the Lotka-Volterra models to realistically represent civil conflicts

Applies the framework to the case of the Greek Civil War (1946-1949) by using detailed conflict data

Media Type:
Springer International Publishing
Biography Artist:

Nicos Christodoulakis, is Professor of Economic Analysis at the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) and Research Associate with the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics. In 2002-2003, he was Minister of Finance in Greece and acting Chairman of the Eurogroup. He has written extensively on growth and economic policy - and on the Greek and the Eurozone crisis in particular. His last book "How Crises shaped Economic Ideas and Policies: Wiser after the events?” has been published with Springer.

"A highly original and informative book, making a substantive contribution both to the quantitative documentation and the theoretical analysis of civil wars ... . the book is of great interest to every economist and historian who wants to learn about the theoretical and empirical analysis of civil wars and have a fresh and objective birds-eye view on the Greek Civil War." (Michel S. Zouboulakis, Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 29 (3), 2018)
Number of Pages:

Master Data

Product Type:
Hardback book
Package Dimensions:
0.24 x 0.16 x 0.016 m; 0.42 kg
Manufacturer Part Number:
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